A recent cool spell in the UK, with temperatures dropping below average over the weekend, may not signal the onset of winter just yet. New weather forecasts indicate that a warm surge from the Iberian jet stream is poised to sweep across Britain.

According to WXCharts, parts of southern England could see temperatures reaching around 17C by early morning on November 1. London, Surrey, Buckinghamshire, and Hampshire are expected to experience highs near 16C, with the Isle of Wight potentially hitting 17C.

Other regions like Kent, Wiltshire, Essex, Suffolk, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, and Lincolnshire may also witness maximum temperatures of approximately 15C.

The jet stream, a swiftly moving air current high in the atmosphere, is anticipated to be particularly active by 9am on November 1, affecting various European countries, including France, Spain, and Portugal.

While the jet stream is a natural phenomenon unrelated to the climate crisis, experts note that our warming planet is intensifying and increasing the frequency of Iberian jet streams, leading to extreme weather events like heatwaves and wildfires across Europe.

The Met Office’s extended forecast for November 1 to November 10 suggests that above-average temperatures are more probable, especially initially. Expect fewer instances of overnight frosts or fogs than usual.

However, the weather agency cautions that early November will bring changeable and occasionally unsettled weather, with low pressure systems dominating much of the UK. Showers or longer periods of rain are likely, with western regions expected to receive the most precipitation. Nonetheless, there could be intermittent drier spells, more common in eastern areas.

The UK’s hottest November on record occurred in 2015 when Trawsgoed, Wales, recorded a scorching 22.3C, a milestone also associated with the jet stream. The previous record of 21.7C in Prestatyn, Wales, dated back to 1946.