After spending a significant amount of time facing challenges, Doug Ford took a more assertive stance this past week, engaging in a verbal clash with Donald Trump. Political experts note that this confrontation with the unpredictable U.S. president aligns with the premier’s skills and has led to a notable increase in his approval ratings just before three crucial provincial byelections.
The exchange of insults between Ford and Trump began when trade discussions between American and Canadian officials collapsed. Trump, on Monday, likened the premier to his deceased brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, portraying him as less charismatic, intelligent, and impressive. Additionally, Trump labeled Ford as a “flunky” of Prime Minister Mark Carney. In response, Ford criticized Trump as the “king of bankruptcies” and a “bully,” asserting his resilience to Trump’s insults due to his extensive experience in politics.
Being at odds with Trump has proven to be advantageous for Ford. It notably contributed to his landslide victory in the snap election earlier in 2025. Following the recent verbal sparring with the president, Ford’s personal approval ratings surged by 12 points, propelling his Progressive Conservatives to the lead in a Liaison Strategies opinion poll conducted on the same day as the confrontation.
The upcoming byelections in Scarborough Southwest, York-Simcoe, and Hamilton East–Stoney Creek are set to take place on Thursday. While York-Simcoe has historically been a stronghold for the Progressive Conservatives, the races in Scarborough Southwest and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek are anticipated to be closely contested. Analysts suggest that Ford’s conflict with Trump could rally support for the PCs in these regions.
Former Liberal cabinet minister John Milloy remarked that voters may associate anti-Trump sentiments with Ford, potentially influencing their choices in the byelections. Milloy, now the director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University College, emphasized that Ford’s ability to tap into public frustration towards Trump could drive higher voter turnout.
Meanwhile, NDP strategist Erin Morrison highlighted the Official Opposition’s efforts to secure victories in Scarborough and Hamilton. Ford’s confrontation with Trump has served as a noteworthy diversion for the premier amidst controversies surrounding his administration, potentially aiding his prospects in the upcoming elections.
Conservative strategist Sam Duncan praised Ford’s handling of the Trump feud, stating that it resonates with the premier’s understanding of public sentiment. Duncan believes that Ford’s actions have reinforced his support base and could impact the outcome in Hamilton’s byelection significantly.
Despite the potential positive impact on Ford’s government image, McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe cautioned against overstating the effects of the Trump feud. While the confrontation may marginally enhance Ford’s standing, particularly in areas like Hamilton East with concerns over steel tariffs, Graefe suggests that its overall influence may be limited.