Experts predict that the cost of Christmas dinner will remain stable this year, despite the recent surge in food prices. Market research conducted by Worldpanel, now known as Numerator, reveals that the average cost of a turkey dinner with all the trimmings for four people will be around £32.46, slightly lower than last year’s £32.57. This decrease comes as a surprise considering the overall grocery price inflation has stayed at 4.7% in the last month.

Retailers are intensifying their efforts to attract Christmas shoppers by offering competitive prices. Supermarkets are particularly focused on appealing to price-conscious families who prioritize affordability when shopping for essential Christmas meal items.

Worldpanel data shows that the price of frozen turkeys has decreased by 3.6% to £13.52 compared to last year. Some festive items like parsnips have also seen a price drop of 0.4% at 71p for four pieces. However, prices have increased for other items such as cauliflower by 4.2%, carrots by 5.5%, Brussels sprouts by 3.6%, potatoes by 1.1%, gravy granules by 5.1%, stuffing mix by 6.9%, cranberry sauce by about 10%, Christmas pudding by 0.8%, and sparkling wine by 1.7%.

Discount grocer Aldi claims to have maintained low prices, offering a festive meal for eight people for less than £12, equating to under £1.50 per person. This deal is available from December 19 to Christmas Eve and includes festive vegetables that can be discounted to as low as 8p as part of a Christmas Super Six promotion.

Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, points out that retailers are striving to entice shoppers during the crucial holiday season. Despite financial struggles faced by many households, consumers are still willing to spend on small indulgences, indicated by the increased sales of premium own-label products. Additionally, the data shows a rise in purchases of chocolate and sparkling wine, despite price hikes in these categories.

Online grocer Ocado has achieved a record market share of 2.2%, with a sales boost of 15.8% in the past three months. Although online stores are growing, physical supermarkets are expected to dominate during the days leading up to Christmas, especially with the holiday falling on a Thursday this year.

Lidl has experienced the largest market share increase, gaining an additional 0.5 percentage points to reach 8.1%. Aldi’s sales have also risen by 4.1%, maintaining a market share of 10.5%. Sainsbury’s has seen a 5.1% sales increase, raising its market share to 16%, while Asda continues to struggle with a 4.3% decrease in takings and a market share of 11.5%.

Tesco remains the leading player in the industry, with sales growing by 4.7% to nearly £10.2 billion in the three months leading up to November, and a market share increase to 28.3%.