The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and could potentially become the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events next year, as per the World Meteorological Organization’s announcement on Thursday.
Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated in a Geneva press briefing that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass any observed since monitoring began, surpassing the charts used for the past 40 years.
The UN weather agency highlighted a nearly 100% certainty of El Niño persisting through February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This level of confidence is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A powerful El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons.
“The planet is entering uncharted territory as El Niño undergoes unprecedented amplification. The evidence is clear: our world is heating up,” remarked United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, impacting rainfall and drought conditions across Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already affected agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO projected that El Niño will peak towards the end of this year but continue into 2027, leaving a legacy of elevated global temperatures in the following year, according to Saulo.
Saulo emphasized the WMO’s commitment to enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives in anticipation of the upcoming impacts.
“We are dedicated to collaborating closely with UN partners and humanitarian organizations to provide the necessary climate insights and intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” Saulo stated.
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